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The debut of Collision takes place later today in Chicago, IL. It will feature the return of CM Punk and will be the unofficial home for the talents that….let’s just say have a different mindset and view of what the business is than those that make Dynamite the program that it is. Wednesday nights are for “dream matches” and little to no storytelling or character building. That format appeals to a hardcore group of fans and while I would make changes to the presentation of the show, I can see why Tony Khan doesn’t. It’s what that core fan base likes and wants to see, massive audience erosion most weeks from the beginning to the end notwithstanding, and he gives them what they want.
That makes sense and I get why he does it. However, he should now leave his comfort zone and take advantage of the opportunity that’s in front of him by making Collision a totally different presentation of pro wrestling than his Wednesday and Friday shows. There are a few reasons for that.
First and foremost, as great as the ticket sales for Wembley and Forbidden Door are (and make no mistake, they are great numbers), the rest of AEW’s business is largely soft. The demo is down year to year and houses for the most part are down as well. The pattern of ticket sales dropping for returns to venues is undeniable and troubling. At a time when WWE is seeing their houses rise, AEW is going in the other direction. I think a major reason for that is the sameness of the product. If fans have already seen it live and they know it will be more of the same thing this time around, it’s more missable. That’s just a fact of life. WWE dealt with the same issues under Vince McMahon’s creative. But now, with stories progressing and characters getting more traction, interest in the WWE product has risen.
My belief is that a lot of his fan base will get their fill of “good wrestling” with his existing shows. We have already seen that more isn’t better with Rampage’s numbers. The show started out well and then became missable because it was “just more good wrestling”. If that is what Collision becomes, especially on a Saturday night (which will be a hard night to draw an audience), it’s reasonable to assume that something similar will happen there as well if Collision is a carbon copy of Wednesday and Friday.
I know this will drive the AEW hardcore fans insane but facts are facts. If you look at what the most important and popular thing in wrestling is right now it’s The Bloodline storyline. Nothing else is even close. It’s so popular it’s driven WWE upward. The storyline’s players headlined BOTH nights of WrestleMania. What makes it so popular? Simple, the characters and the stories. Smackdown did almost three million viewers for the Bloodline quarter hour a few weeks ago. No match to be had. People tuned in because they were invested in the characters and the storylines, and they wanted to see what would happen. AEW should be looking to copy what we already see is working in WWE. Given the characters and promo people they have on Collision, it’s the perfect place to put that kind of show in place and give it a chance to resonate. Smackdown should be what they are trying to emulate, not Dynamite. If done correctly, Khan could find himself in a New Japan-Ishigun situation where fans pick sides when Saturday goes to war with Wednesday. If he keeps people apart and establishes who the sides are, when they finally clash it could mean big money (if done correctly of course).
Maybe the most important reason to try something different with Collision is that the company doesn’t have much to lose and has a lot to gain. As I mentioned above, Saturday is a rough night to draw an audience. If this show is just an extension of Dynamite the way that Rampage is it becomes easier to miss, even with Punk, FTR, etc. In order to make it stand out, it has to be different. They have to give people a reason to tune in beyond the matches. They have to give them stories and drama. They have to try and make it like The Bloodline, where people need to see it live because they don’t want what happens to be spoiled for them. They want to see it as it happens, you know destination programming. They have the talent on the roster to get people to invest in and do great storylines, as opposed to the hotshotting and curious turns that they do on Wednesday. They just need to find a way to put that kind of product in place. Frankly, if I were Tony Khan I would turn the show over to a different booking mind with a different vision than mine. I would want the show to be clearly different from Dynamite. I would try and reach the fans that aren’t watching Wednesday but are invested in The Bloodline. I would try to open my product to a group of fans who aren't invested in it now.
At the end of the day, to me it’s a win-win situation for Khan to try something totally different with Collision. It’s widely expected that WBD will pick up their option for the TV deals for 2024. If Collision starts hot and then becomes like Rampage, Tony will have limited leverage when it comes time to negotiate a new deal with WBD or other entities. But, if he can make Saturday night a hit on the par with Dynamite or even better, he will be looking at a much better deal this time next year. The opportunity is there. I hope Tony Khan makes the most of it.
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